This information is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a substitute nor should it be used in place of official information. Please follow and obey orders from local emergency management officials.
ISABEL
LOOKING VERY IMPRESSIVE ON MORNING SATELLITE WITH LARGE EYE.
LATEST IR SAT PICS AS WELL AS FIRST VIS PICS OF THE
DAY
SHOW A WELL DEVELOPED HURRICANE WITH A 30-35 NMI WIDE EYE SURROUNDED BY SOLID
CDO WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -80C. OUTFLOW REMAINS UNRESTRICTED AND CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING LOOKS LIKELY. LATEST 12Z SHIPS IS NEAR 135 MPH IN 48 HRS.
SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE. THE SUPERIOR UPPER AIR PATTERN SEEMS TO BE
OVERCOMING ANY COOL WATER WAKE LEFT BEHIND FROM FABIAN. INTENSIFICATION
SHOULD PEAK THEN LEVEL OFF IN THE NEXT 48 HRS AS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES TAKE
PLACE. INTENSE HURRICANES RARELY HOLD 135 MPH+ INTENSITY FOR MORE THAN 24
HOURS. BEYOND ANY LEVELING OFF IN INTENSITY I STILL BELIEVE ISABEL
WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO CRANK ONCE AGAIN (PERHAPS TO STRONG CAT 4 STATUS)
AS IT CROSSES 65 WEST ABOUT 4 DAYS FROM NOW.
TRACK: NO CHANGE FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON POST....IF ANYTHING I'M MORE
CONFIDENT THAT THE THREAT OF A U.S. HIT IS
INCREASING.
LATEST GLOBAL AND TPC MODEL SUITE ARE RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN A TRACK
**JUST** TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS....HOLD YOUR BREATH IT COULD BE
UNCOMFORTABLY CLOSE...AND DEPENDING ON TRENDS NEXT FEW DAYS A HURRICANE WATCH MY
BE POSTED LATER THIS WEEK FOR THE NORTHERN ISLANDS. BEYOND THAT A W.N.W.
TRACK TOWARDS OR INTO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS BY NEXT MONDAY LOOKS
REASONABLE.....STILL BELIEVE A PSN NEXT SUNDAY AFTERNOON NEAR 22.5N/70.0W LOOKS
REASONABLE.
ONCE TO THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN OR S.E. BAHAMA ISLANDS QUESTION WILL BE IS
ISABEL PULLED MORE N.W. TOWARD THE S.E. COAST OR DOES IT CONTINUE WEST OR W.N.W.
TOWARD SOUTHERN FL? WAY TO EARLY TO ANSWER THAT QUESTION BUT I BELIEVE
ISABEL WILL GET FAR ENOUGH WEST SO THAT EVEN IF THERE IS SOME KIND OF
RECURVATURE IT WILL BE TO LATE TO SPARE SOME PORTION OF THE U.S. EAST COAST.
AS FAR AS INTENSITY AT ANY POSSIBLE U.S. LANDFALL???? CRAP SHOOT TO SAY
THE LEAST....PATTERN COULD EASILY SUPPORT A MAJOR CAT 3 STORM AT THAT TIME BUT
IT WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY HOW THINGS PLAY OUT...ISABEL COULD BE PULSING UP OR
DOWN PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
NEEDLESS TO SAY....NORTHERN ISLANDS KEEP AN EYE TO THE EAST...COULD BE CLOSE
CALL LATER THIS WEEK.
INTERESTING DAYS AHEAD....STAY TUNED.