TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ISSUED: SUNDAY – 8/19/01 – 4:00 P.M.

CHANTAL IS LIKE THE LITTLE ENGINE THAT COULD…BUT CAN SHE? I THINK SHE CAN.

CURRENTLY:  ONCE AGAIN TODAY,  CHANTAL IS FIGHTING TO HANG ON.  AFTER A VERY IMPRESSIVE BURST IN THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING RECON GOT DOWN THERE AND FOUND THE CENTER OUT FROM UNDER THE VERY IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION BUT HAD WINDS TO 70 KTS. N.E. OF CENTER LIKELY RELATED TO THE CONVECTIVE BURST.  AT THIS HOUR WE NOW HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER EVIDENT ON VIS SAT PICS IS ABLE TO BECOME CO-LOCATED WITH THE CONVECTION…WHICH BY THE WAY HAS PULSED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THIS MORNING…OR WILL THE MID LEVEL CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION WORK ITS WAY DOWN TO THE SURFACE…..THAT IS DIRECTION IN WHICH I AM LEANING AT THIS HOUR.  IF THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER IS INDEED THE ONE AND ONLY CENTER AND A NEW ONE DOES NOT DEVELOP UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION,  THEN THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY WEST ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF HONDURAS THEN INTO BELIZE AND THAT WILL BE THE END OF CHANTAL AS WE KNOW HER.  NOT READY TO GO THERE AT THIS HOUR…CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE IN THE REGION FOR CHANTAL TO HANG ON AND REGROUP…OUTFLOW IS RESPECTABLE AND IF MID-LEVEL CENTER UNDER THE CONVECTION DOES DROP DOWN TO THE SURFACE THEN WE ARE BACK IN BUSINESS.

INTENSITY FCST:  CHANTAL IS GOING DOWN IN INTENSITY TONIGHT…NOT UP.

I THINK THE CURRENT WINDS ARE A GIFT AND SUSPECT THEY WILL BE LOWERED IN THE 5PM ADVISORY.  PRESSURE MAY ALSO COME UP WITH NEXT RECON REPORT.  THIS ASSUMES NO NEW CENTER HAS YET FORMED UNDER THE  DEEP CONVECTION.   IF CHANTAL IS ABLE TO REGROUP OVERNIGHT THEN CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR HER TO ATTAIN HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN 24 HOURS.

TRACK:  AGAIN INTENSITY IS KEY TO TRACK….A WEAK AND/OR EXPOSED CENTER IS GOING TO CONTINUE MORE WEST THAN ANYTHING ELSE…IF CHANTAL CAN GROW AND BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED THEN HIGHER LEVEL STEERING WILL TAKE OVER AND MORE W.N.W. THEN N.W. MOTION WILL CARRY HER ALONG.

SO TRACK IS GOING TO HINGE ON INTENSITY…AT LEAST INITIALLY.

AS I MENTIONED IN LAST UPDATE THE FASTER CHANTAL MOVES THE MORE LIKELY THE FURTHER NORTH SHE WOULD GET.  THE ALMOST 50% REDUCTION IN SPEED OVERNIGHT AND THE FACT THAT THE IS HAVING TROUBLE GETTING ORGANIZED MAY END UP BEING THE SAVING GRACE FOR THE U.S. GULF COAST.  THE WINDOW FOR THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS CLOSING AND THE RIDGE IS FCST TO REBUILD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  INDEED MOST GUIDANCE IS REFLECTING THIS AND NOW MOVE CHANTAL ACROSS THE YUCATAN AT ONE LOCATION OR ANOTHER AND THEN INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THEN INTO OLD MEXICO.  LATEST GFDL AND TPC SUITE REFLECT THIS AS DO THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS.  HAVE NOT YET SEEN THE 18Z AVN AND WILL NOT HAVE SEEN IN BEFORE THIS UPDATE GOES OUT.  LATEST NCEP TRACK IS TOWARD BROWNSVILLE, TEXAS MID NEXT WEEK.

AT THIS POINT MY THINKING HAS TO BE A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WITH CENTER EMERGING INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH AN EVENTUAL LANDFALL OVER OLD MEXICO.  ONLY COMPLICATING FACTOR HERE IS I’M NOT SURE AT THE MOMENT WHICH CENTER WE ARE REALLY TRACKING.  IF FOR SOME REASON A NEW CENTER FROMS MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ONE WE ARE CURRENTLY TRACKING THEN WE COULD END UP WITH A DIFFERENT SOLUTION….AT THIS POINT IN TIME I THINK “SOUTH” IS THE WAY TO GO WITH THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF CHANTAL…AT LEAST UNTIL WE FIND OUT WHICH CENTER WE ARE TRACKING.  I THINK SHE WILL EMERGE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BETWEEN 19N AND 20N AND CONTINUE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST FROM THERE INTO OLD MEXICO.

SO, WHILE I’M NOT IN ANY WAY SOUNDING AN ALL CLEAR FOR THE U.S. GULF COAST…ESPECIALLY TEXAS….IT IS LOOKING BETTER THAT THE GULF COAST IS SPARED.  SHOULD BE ABLE TO GIVE A BETTER ANSWER ON ANY POTENTIAL U.S. THREAT SOMETIME TOMORROW … PERHAPS AS EARLY AS TOMORROW MORNING….DEPENDING ON HOW CHANTAL PERFORMS OVERNIGHT.

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