TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL
ISSUED: 5:15 P.M. - FRIDAY - 8/17/01
THIS WILL BE A SHORT UPDATE
SINCE I REALLY HAVE NOTHING TO ADD TO WHAT I’VE BEEN SAYING LAST TWO DAYS.
TPC HAS BROUGHT CHANTAL BACK
TO TS STATUS IN THE 5PM ADVISORY. I
BELIEVE INITIAL WIND ESTIMATE IS LOW BASED ON SATELLITE PRESENTATION.
I’M SURE THEY ARE BEING CONSERVATIVE UNTIL RECON GETS IN THERE ABOUT
8:00 TONIGHT.
CHANTAL CONTINUES TO IMRPOVE
AND CONSOLIDATE. BASED ON LAST FEW
VISIBLE IMAGES A CDO MAY BE TRYING TO FORM.
CONVECTION HAS PLUSED DOWN
LAST HOUR OR SO BUT WOULD EXPECT THAT TO MAKE A COMEBACK DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
TRACK:
NO CHANGE TO THINKING FROM 24 HOURS AGO.
CHANTAL IS TAKING AIM ON THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ONLY QUESTION IS
WHERE EXACTLY DOES SHE ENTER AND DOES SHE TANGLE WITH LAND AS SHE DOES SO.
I BELIEVE THE CENTER OF
CHANTAL COULD COME WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA SATURDAY
NIGHT/PRE-DAWN SUNDAY. FROM THERE
WOULD EXPECT A WNW TRACK THROUGH
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...PERHAPS CLOSE TO THE TIP OF THE YUCATAN.
LONGER RANGE: STILL BELIEVE A
TURN MORE NW/NNW IS LIKELY AND RESIDENTS ALONG THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHANTAL NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
BELIEVE THE TRACK ON LATEST
SET OF NCEP MANUAL PROGS OF CHANTAL CROSSING THE YUCATAN AND ENTERING THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE THEN MOVING INTO OLD MEXICO IS OUT TO LUNCH.
IF I HAVE TO EAT MY WORDS FOR LUNCH 5 DAYS FROM NOW..SO BE IT.
INTENSITY:
TO SAY THE LEAST CHANTAL HAS POTENTIAL TO REACH CAT 3 STATUS.
BELIEVE TPC 72HR INTENSITY IS NOT INTENSE ENOUGH.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A 100KT+ HURRICANE MOVE INTO THE S.E. GULF
OF MEXICO BY AROUND 72-84 HOURS.
THIS OF ASSUMES SHE MOVES
RATHER CLEANLY THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
NCEP AVN IS FURTHER NORTH
THAN OTHER GLOBAL GUIDANCE AND MY OFFICIAL TRACK WOULD BE JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF
AVN GUIDANCE AND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF TPC TRACK. TPC TROPICAL MODEL SUITE HAS ALSO GRADUALLY BEEN SHIFTING
NORTH.
I WILL BE UNAVAIL FOR NEXT 24 HOURS AND WOULD EXPECT NEXT UPDATE AROUND 9:00-10:00 SATURDAY NIGHT.