TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
ISSUED: SATURDAY - 9/2/00 - 8:00 A.M.

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORMS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE SHORT SINCE THE BIGGEST QUESTION OF THE HOUR IS DOES ERNESTO SURVIVE FOR MORE THAN A DAY????

LATEST POSITION OF 16.1N/49.8W IS QUESTIONABLE. LATEST VISIBLE PICS I'VE SEEN SUPPORT A CENTER SOMEWHAT FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE DEEPER CONVECTION...CLOSER TO 17.2N/51.5. CONVECTION IS HEALTHY LOOKING AND SUGGESTS SINCE I BELIEVE CENTER IS UNDER IT...WE HAVE A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SYSTEM THAN WHAT 5AM TPC ADVISORY SUGGESTS...WE'LL SEE WHAT THEY SAY AT 11AM. BUT BASED ON WHAT I'VE SEEN...IT DOES APPEAR CENTER WILL NEED A "BUMP" TO THE NORTH AND INTENSITY COULD BE NUDGED UP SLIGHTLY. SYSTEM HAS GOOD INFLOW IN ALL QUADS AND OUTFLOW IS BEST TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AND IS RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE BY THE DREADED "SHEAR". 

IF THIS POSITION IS CORRECT WE WOULD HAVE AN INITIAL MOTION THAT IS MORE N.W. THEN W.N.W. 

INTENSITY: THIS IS QUESTION OF THE DAY...AND WILL DICTATE WHAT HAPPENS DOWN THE ROAD. LATEST WV & WIND ANALYSIS FROM CIMSS SHOWS A HOSTILE MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELD AHEAD OF ERNESTO...WITH THE "CORE" OF THE WORST SHEAR ROUGHLY BETWEEN 50 AND 60 WEST...I.E. ERNESTO IS JUST STARTING TO FEEL THIS SOUTHERLY SHEAR. THIS MAY TO SOME EXTENT ACCOUNT FOR THE "BURST" IN CONVECTION. THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT AT BEST WHATEVER INTENSITY ERNESTO REACHES THIS MORNING IT WILL AT THE  VERY LEAST BE HALTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS....AT WORST THE CENTER WILL SEPARATE FROM THE CONVECTION AND BE EXPOSED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF IT FROM LATER TODAY INTO TOMORROW.

THE MID & UPPER FLOW BETWEEN 50 & 60 IS ESPECIALLY STRONG SO FEELING HERE IS THAT ERNESTO WILL WEAKEN BACK TO DEPRESSION STATUS WITH AN EXPOSED LL CENTER BY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW....IT IS POSSIBLE HE EVEN GETS SHEARED TO AN OPEN WAVE BUT I'LL NOT GO THAT FAR JUST YET...I THINK WE WILL HAVE A LEAST A EXPOSED LL CENTER TO TRACK. LATEST MODEL FCSTS ARE FOR THIS SHEAR TO **SLOWLY** RELAX BEYOND 24-36 HOURS AND FOR MUCH FOR FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO TAKE OVER BY 48-72 HOURS. THEY HAVE BEATING THIS DRUM ALL WEAK AND IT HAS NOT OCCURRED...BUT I DO BELIEVE IT EVENTUALLY WILL AND BY 72 HOURS I THINK CONDITIONS WILL BE SUCH THAT *****IF***** ERNESTO CAN HOLD TOGETHER ENOUGH HE COULD BE IN A POSITION TO INTENSIFY...AND PERHAPS QUITE RAPIDLY. HOWEVER....IT IS POSSIBLE ERNESTO DOES NOT SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH FOR IT TO HAVE A CHANCE 72 HOURS FROM NOW. 

TRACK....IT IS ALMOST POINTLESS TO DISCUSS A TRACK SINCE INTENSITY IS KEY AS TO WHAT IF ANYTHING WE HAVE TO TRACK.  MEANING...WILL BE HAVE NOTHING TO TRACK...A LL CENTER TO TRACK...OR SOMETHING IN BETWEEN. I GUESS ALL I'LL SAY RIGHT NOW IS I'LL ACCEPT THE LATEST TPC TRACK WITH A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT NORTH IF ERNESTO HOLDS TOGETHER BETTER THAN I THINK...OR AN ADJUSTMENT SOUTH IF WE END UP TRACKING A LOW CLOUD SWIRL. 

IF ERNESTO HOLDS TOGETHER....IT WILL PASS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS FOR SURE....BEYOND THAT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF IT EVER POSES A THREAT TO THE S.E. UNITED STATES....BASED ON TRENDS I'VE SEEN LAST FEW DAYS I DON'T SEE HOW IT CAN BUT I'M NOT READY TO SLAM THE DOOR ON THE POSSIBILITY JUST YET. I SUSPECT IF IT IS A THREAT TO THE UNITED STATES IT WOULD BE FOR SC/NC....BUT THAT IS JUST A VERY EARLY CALL AND GUT FEELING TELLS ME IT WILL NOT AFFECT THE STATES.

WILL UPDATE AGAIN TOMORROW BY MID/LATE MORNING.