SHORT UPDATE - HURRICANE DEBBY
4:30 P.M. - TUESDAY - 8/22/00


**DEBBY POTENTIALLY TO MAKE LANDFALL ON FLORIDA EAST COAST**
**POSSIBLY A THREAT FURTHER NORTH UP ALONG THE SC/NC COAST**

THIS WILL BE SHORT AND FULL UPDATE WITH TRACK MAP WILL FOLLOW BY 9:30 PM

CURRENTLY: THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN DEBBY TODAY. SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS BEEN AND REMAINS FAIR.  AN EYE COMES AND GOES ON SAN JUAN RADAR. DEBBY HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY IN FORWARD MOTION AND THIS SLOWING SHOULD GRADUALLY CONTINUE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. CENTER IS CURRENTLY PASSING ABOUT 40 MILES NORTH OF SAN JUAN BUT EYE IS SO BROAD THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE RAGGED EYEWALL IS ON THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO. 

INTENSITY: LATEST 18Z SHIPS IS 89 KTS. AT 72 HOURS. 12Z GFDL DEEPENS THE DEBBY DRAMATICALLY BEYOND 48 HOURS.
WILL PROJECT A 110-120 MPH HURRICANE WITHIN 72 HOURS AS DEBBY NEARS THE FLORIDA COAST. WILL LOOK AT THIS INTENSITY FORECAST AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING. WATER IS 84-85 DEGREES AHEAD OF DEBBY AND CONDITIONS ARE GOOD FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

TRACK: SHORT TERM TRACK OUTLINED THIS MORNING IS ON TARGET. DEBBY WILL CONTINUE W.N.W. PULLING GRADUALLY AWAY FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE D.R. OUT OVER MORE OPEN WATER. TRACK WILL THEN TAKE DEBBY TOWARD THE BAHAMAS WHERE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE ALREADY UP. THINKING HERE IS CENTER WILL PASS WITHIN 50 MILES OF NASSAU AND CONTINUE W.N.W. OR N.W. FROM THERE. RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEED TO AT LEAST THINK ABOUT WHAT THEY NEED TO DO.  MY PROJECTED TRACK WOULD TAKE DEBBY ON SHORE ANYWHERE BETWEEN KEY LARGO AND CAPE CANAVERAL AS IT TURNS MORE NORTH...SO IT IS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK THE COAST OF FLORIDA GETS RAKED BY HURRICANE CONDITIONS.

THIS IS NOT AN EASY FORECAST AND IT IS POSSIBLE THE CENTER TRAVELS NORTH JUST OFFSHORE FLORIDA....BUT EVEN THAT WOULD PRODUCE WIND/RAIN/SEAS. 

DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE DEBBY TURNS WILL DETERMINE THE THREAT TO LOCATIONS NORTH OF FLORIDA...A NORTHWARD TURN
CLOSE IN WOULD MEAN A THREAT TO THE SC AND/OR NC COAST AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF THERE.

I DON'T HAVE ALL THE ANSWERS YET BY ANY MEANS....AND I'M VERY SHORT ON TIME...BUT SUFFICE TO SAY RESIDENTS OF THE EAST COAST
FROM FLORIDA TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEBBY. DEBBY WILL NOT BE A FAST MOVER COMING UP ALONG/OFF THE
EAST COAST SO THIS RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING RAINS FOR PORTIONS OF THE S.E./MID ATLANTIC AND PERHAPS INTO THE NORTHEAST SOMETIME DOWN THE LINE.

NO NEW 5PM TPC DATA AT THIS TIME...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A CHANGE IN WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR BAHAMA ISLANDS IN THE 5PM UPDATE. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE I WOULD SUSPECT HURRICANE WATCHES TO GO UP FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

AGAIN...RESIDENTS OF THE EAST COAST...ESPECIALLY FLORIDA IN THE NEAR TERM NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEBBY.