TROPICAL STORM DEBBY
ISSUED: 9:00 A.M. - MONDAY - 8/21/00

CURRENTLY: AS OF 5AM TPC POSITION WAS 15.7/55.3 MOVING NORTH OF DUE WEST (280) AT 20 MPH. IF YOU SMOOTH OUT THE TRACK FROM THE FIRST ADVISORY TO THE CURRENT ADVISORY YOU HAVE A NET W.N.W. MOTION WHICH WIPES OUT THE SHORT TERM "BUMPS" IN THE ROAD. WITH RECON NOW GIVING FIXES WE'LL HAVE A MUCH BETTER IDEA OF WHAT IS GOING ON. FIRST RECON FIX SHOULD BE AVAIL BY 11AM TPC ADVISORY. SO DESPITE THE LAST 6-8 HOURS WITH 280 MOTION...A GENERAL W.N.W.  TRACK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

FIRST FEW VISIBLE PICS OF THE DAY SUGGEST TO ME DEBBY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THERE APPEARS TO BE GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADS...PERHAPS LIMITED SLIGHTLY ON THE WESTERN SIDE....GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND VERY DEEP, COLD CONVECTION. BEST ESTIMATE HERE IS THAT CENTER IS UNDER DEEP CONVECTION BUT PERHAPS NOT 100% CENTRALLY LOCATED. IN ANY EVENT THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION LOOKS GOOD AND I WOULD FORECAST AN INCREASE IN WINDS BEFORE THIS DAY IS OVER. FIRST RECON REPORTS SHOULD BE IN LATER THIS MORNING. WEAK SHEAR I MENTIONED LAST NIGHT SEEMS TO HAVE LESSENED THIS MORNING AS DEBBY HAS MORE CONCENTRIC LOOK.

INTENSITY: LATEST SHIPS IS 74 KTS. AT 72 HOURS...WHICH MAY MEAN MY 95 MPH IS OVER ZEALOUS AND MAY HAVE TO BE TRIMMED BACK IN NEXT UPDATE.

MY THINKING ON INTENSITY HAS NOT CHANGED AND THIS IS JUST A CONTINUATION FROM LAST UPDATE.

OTHER THAN THE NORMAL ISSUES WITH INTENSITY FCSTING..THE ADDITIONAL FACTOR FOR INTENSITY FCST HERE IS TRACK.
TRACK WILL BE KEY AS WE HEAD TO MIDWEEK AND BEYOND. IF DEBBY STAYS OFFSHORE PUERTO RICO & DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ODDS FAVOR A STRONGER SYSTEM...BUT IF DEBBY TRACKS OVER OR HUGS THE COAST OF THESE ISLANDS THE INTENSITY COULD FALL OFF..PERHAPS SHARPLY DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK. MY FCST OF 95 MPH ASSUMES TRACK IS CORRECT AND CENTER REMAINS OVER THE WATER...EVEN THE 95 MPH COULD BE ON THE HIGH SIDE SINCE AT LEAST THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION WILL HAVE TO TANGLE WITH THE MTS. OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. WILL LEAVE FCST AT 95 MPH FOR NOW AND LOOK AT THIS AGAIN LATER. I DO NOT SEE ANYTHING ON THE MAPS AT THIS TIME THAT LEADS ME TO BELIEVE DEBBY BECOMES A MAJOR (CAT 3+) HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS.



TRACK: MY LATEST TRACK FORECAST Click here: SNONUT's hurricane page IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF FORECAST ISSUED LAST NIGHT...EXCEPT A SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE SOUTH TO REFLECT A POSSIBLE MORE WESTWARD MOTION IN THE NEAR TERM AS CENTER ORGANIZES. IF RECON COMES IN WITH A CENTER FIX WITH A SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT THEN THIS FCST WILL NEED SOME ADJUSTING TONIGHT.

LITTLE HAS CHANGED AND BASIC REASONING FROM LAST NIGHT REMAINS. I BELIEVE TROF MOVING INTO THE EASTERN U.S. LATER IN THE WORK WEEK WILL EVENTUALLY HAVE AN AFFECT ON DEBBY...BUT EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE? 

DAY4/5 FCST HAS BEEN SLOWED BY ABOUT 6 HOURS FROM LAST UPDATE TO REFLECT A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATER IN 
THE WEEK. IN ADDITION CONE HAS BEEN WIDENED BY DAY 5 TO REFLECT MORE UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK BY THEN.  IDEAL TRACK IS DOWN CENTER OF CONE...BUT ANYWHERE IN THERE IS POSSIBLE.

DAY 4/DAY 5 TRACK FCST IN THIS UPDATE IMPLIES CENTER WILL BE CLOSE TO OR POSSIBLY INLAND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. 

IF SOUTHERN PORTION OF "CONE" IS REALIZED THEN LANDFALL WOULD BE LIKELY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA SOMETIME LATER ON FRIDAY. 
I STILL CAN'T FCST LANDFALL OVER FLORIDA WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE...BUT AT THE VERY LEAST IT IS GOING TO MAKE A CLOSE PASS AND CAUSE TENSION...GUSTY WINDS/RAIN/HIGH SEAS & SURF ARE BECOMING AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR SOUTH FLORIDA....EXACT TRACK WILL DETERMINE HOW BAD IT IS. IF I LIVED IN SOUTH FLORIDA I WOULD FOLLOW THIS CLOSELY AT LEAST UNTIL SOME DEFINITE TRENDS BECOME ESTABLISHED.

00Z GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN DIVIDED. THE NOGAPS REMAINS ON THE SOUTH WITH DEBBY SKIRTING THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA THEN MOVING INTO THE S.E. GULF. THE MRF HAS NOW DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE NOGAPS IN BRINGING DEBBY OVER THE LENGTH OF CUBA..THEN THROUGH THE FL KEYS...THEN BACK ACROSS FLORIDA ON A TRACK JUST OFF THE S.E. U.S. COAST TO NEAR HATTERAS..THEN N.E. TO NEAR S.E. NEW ENGLAND...THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT FROM PRIOR RUN.  

THE UKMET IS SIMILAR TO ITS PRIOR RUN WITH RECURVATURE THROUGH THE CENTRAL/WESTERN BAHAMA ISLANDS...SOME 125-150 MILES OFFSHORE FLORIDA. THE GLOBAL CANADIAN IS ALSO FURTHER WEST THIS RUN...SIMILAR TO UKMET ONLY TO THE LEFT... THE CANADIAN BRINGS DEBBY TO WITHIN 60 MILES OF THE FLORIDA COAST BEFORE LIFTING IT NORTH TO NEAR HATTERAS. 

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...INTENSITY OF DEBBY AS SHE NEARS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL GREATLY BE DETERMINED ON HOW SHE TANGLES WITH HISPANOLA/CUBA..SHE COULD BE A POTENT HURRICANE OR A MINIMAL CAT 1 DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK.

TPC TROPICAL MODELS: 06Z GFDL IS SIMILAR TO LAST SEVERAL RUNS....TRACKING DEBBY THROUGH THE EXTREME NORTHERN ISLANDS..THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS..ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO..THEN ALONG NORTH COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC....GFDL IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UKMET SCENARIO ABOVE...MY FCST TRACK REMAINS SLIGHTLY
NORTH OF THESE TWO MODELS.

LATEST 12Z TPC SUITE SHOWS L-BAR & A90E VERY CLOSE TO MY 8AM THURSDAY POSITION. MEDIUM BAM IS OUT IN FRONT SOME
250 MILES S.E. OF MIAMI AT 8AM THURSDAY....MUCH TO FAST...AND DEEP BAM IS ABOUT 200 MILES N.E. OF A90E & L-BAR.  SO ONLY PUZZLER THIS MORNING IN TERMS OF MODEL GUIDANCE IS MRF SWITCH TO NOGAPS SOLUTION...I'M NOT BUYING INTO THAT AT THE MOMENT BUY HAS NOT BEEN DISCOUNTED EITHER...HENCE THE DAY 5 OPTION WITH WIDER CONE TO AFFECT THE KEYS...BUT  REMEMBER....TRACK DOWN CENTER OF CONE IS WHAT I'M EXPECTING.


RESIDENTS OF THE N.E. ISLANDS SHOULD FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF DEBBY CLOSELY AS IT WILL IMPACT THE NORTHEAST ISLANDS IN 24-36 HOURS.

NEXT UPDATE AROUND 9PM MONDAY.